MLB Predictions Revisited

What good is a prediction if you don’t own up to it later. The baseball preview is still available on this site, so it seemed like a good idea to revisit it and see how good (and how bad) many of the predictions were. Overall, it looks like someone picked them before the season started…so at least I’ve got that going for me. Anway, I did a breakdown based on wins to see how many were good predictions and how many were not so good. Here is the scale that I established:

If actual wins match predicted, then it scored a rating of Perfect
If actual wins were within 5 games of the predicted, it scored a rating of Very Good
If actual wins were more than 5 but less than 10 off of predicted, it scored a rating of Decent
If actual wins were more than 10 but less than 15 off of predicted, it scored a rating of Not Good
If actual wins were more than 15 off of predicted, it scored a rating of Terrible

The final tally is:
1 Perfect
13 Very Good
4 Decent
6 Not Good
6 Terrible

In addition the playoff prediction tally is:
3 of 8 playoff teams correct (1 matchup exactly correct)
1 of 4 LCS teams correct
0 of 2 World Series teams correct
0 of 1 World Series Champion correct

For the raw data of the predictions see below. If it is a positive number then the team performed better than predicted by that many wins and if it is a negative number then the team performed worse than predicted by that many wins.

Indians -28
Mets -25
Dbacks -22
Royals -17
Orioles -13
Pirates -13
Rays -10
Reds -6
Dodgers -6
Braves -4
Athletics -4
Marlins -3
Cardinals -3
Red Sox -1
Nationals -1
Twins -1
Brewers -1
Cubs 0
Astros 2
Rangers 3
Mariners 3
Rockies 3
WSox 5
Blue Jays 7
Giants 8
Phillies 10
Yankees 11
Padres 13
Angels 16
Tigers 24

2009-10 NBA Season Preview

The NBA has seemingly been trailing behind the NFL and MLB in national perception and water cooler buzz for some time, but this year it may be as strong as it has been in years. Not only are there good players, but finally there are starting to be good teams, and teams on the rise, and simply teams with an identity. All of that is bad news for the Cavaliers because they are still a team whose identity is one person. That just isn’t going to cut it in this year’s NBA. Conventional wisdom is that there are only 5 teams that can win a championship this year, and I am no different in my opinions, but the season will not just hinge on those for me. There are many subplots of intrigue, not the least of which is if Oklahoma City (that hotbed of street ball) makes their first (of many to come, I assure you) trip to the playoffs and if Kevin Durant wins his first (of many to come, I assure you) scoring title. And that just emphasizes why I think the league could be so good this year. The talent that keeps rising is just better and better. I mean the age 25 and Under starting lineup could beat any team in the league (I took the liberty of putting Durant at the 4 since he is 6′10). Proof? Chris Paul, Brandon Roy, Lebron James, Kevin Durant, & Dwight Howard (and while you are at it, a bench that contains Derrick Rose, Deron Williams, Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, Brook Lopez, & Eric Gordon is pretty good as well). When you have stars that are that good and that young there is an energy, excitement, and enthusiasm that comes with it that can’t help but propel the league to heights we haven’t seen this decade. Oh, in case you wonder who the Big 5 are, it’s Boston, Orlando, Cleveland, Los Angeles (Lakers, of course), and San Antonio.

But anyway, here are my predictions for how this season will play out:

Eastern Conference:
1. Orlando Magic
2. Boston Celtics
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
4. Atlanta Hawks
5. Chicago Bulls
6. Miami Heat
7. Washington Wizards
8. Toronto Raptors
9. Philadelphia 76ers
10. Detroit Pistons
11. Charlotte Bobcats
12. New York Knicks
13. Indiana Pacers
14. New Jersey Nets
15. Milwaukee Bucks

Western Conference:
1. Los Angeles Lakers
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Utah Jazz
4. New Orleans Hornets
5. Dallas Mavericks
6. Houston Rockets
7. Denver Nuggets
8. Oklahoma City Thunder
9. Portland Trailblazers
10. Los Angeles Clippers
11. Phoenix Suns
12. Golden State Warriors
13. Memphis Grizzlies
14. Minnesota Timberwolves
15. Sacramento Kings

Eastern Conference Finals: Orlando over Boston
Western Conference Finals: San Antonio over Los Angeles

NBA Finals: San Antonio over Orlando

RTI’s NFL Preview Edition

As with baseball, I didn’t work out if the proposed records below are all possible together, but it’s a rough approximation. Here is my breakdown and preseason prediction for how the NFL season will end up.

AFC East
This division was surprisingly balanced last year. However that will definitely be changing this year. The Patriots went 11-5 and get back Tom Brady. That’s bad news for everyone else. I seem to remember that he went 18-1 the last year he was healthy. Miami had virtually no cold weather games which definitely helped them and their schedule is much tougher this year. The J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets have a new coach (upgrade) but are starting a quarterback who’s college coach didn’t even thing was ready (downgrade). Their backfield is good, but I don’t see the Jets really making a massive splash. And that leaves Buffalo who has the mercurial T.O. in his first year with the team (upgrade) but he’s 35 years old, and only 6 times has a 35 year old or older receiver had a 1,000 yard season, and 3 of those were Jerry Rice (downgrade). In addition, the Bills fired their offensive coordinator 1 week before the season (downgrade). This really appears to be the Patriots’ division.

1. New England Patriots (13-3)
2. New York Jets (9-7)
3. Miami Dolphins (7-9)
4. Buffalo Bills (6-10)

AFC North
The AFC North will be a two horse race that should be good to the end. The defending champion Pittsburgh Steelers will be everything they always are. A hard-nosed blue-collar workman-like…ok, have I hit the clichè threshold yet?! The Steelers will be the Steelers. And the Ravens will win the division. The Ravens were very good last year and one would only imagine that Flacco & Rice (which is my favorite dish at Panda Express, by the way) will be improved which should only enhance the team’s strengths. While the Bengals are still the Bengals I do expect them to lose with some style. I imagine that Chad EightFive will have a very nice bounce-back year and if Chris Henry stays out of a police cruiser, he could really have a breakout year. And then there are the Browns. There are a lot of what-ifs that could take them from complete train-wreck to at least some level of respectability, but that’s as good as they could get.

1. Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (6-10)
4. Cleveland Browns (6-10)

AFC South
The AFC South is probably the hardest division to predict. All four teams could make playoff runs, but they all have enough inherent flaws to also fall short. Indianapolis had significant upheaval this offseason with all of the coaching changes, but they still have Manning, Wayne, Clark, & Freeney, so they should be able to weather that storm. The Jaguars could be the most stable of the division provided Maurice Jones-Drew can stay healthy while carrying the load. The Titans look poised to slip a bit. The ground game is fantastic, but I just don’t know that Kerry Collins can have another year like he’s had recently, and the loss of Haynesworth on the line will hurt their run defense. The true wild card is Houston who seems to be everyone’s darling to leap to the forefront. But can Matt Schaub stay healthy? Or is Andre Johnson good enough to make even Grossman look good. There’s one thing I know for sure…. Houston DEFINITELY made the right decision taking Mario Williams over Reggie Bush. Everyone should give them some love for that foresight.

1. Indianapolis (11-5)
2. Jacksonville (10-6)
3. Houston (9-7)
4. Tennessee (8-8)

AFC West
You’ve heard the phrase, “a face only a mother could love?”… Mothers are abstaining from comment in Kansas City, Oakland, and possibly even Denver. Denver could conceiveably be 4-12 or 8-8. It just depends on how they react to all of the change. The other two are wretched, and the Chargers should have clinched a playoff spot before December 1st.

1. San Diego (13-3)
2. Denver (6-10)
3. Oakland (5-11)
4. Kansas City (4-12)

NFC East
The NFC East will be an amazing battle all season long. The Giants are many pundits pick to make it all the way to the Super Bowl, though Eli’s receiving corps is not the most impressive I’ve ever seen. The Eagles have lots of weapons, but Westbrook’s health as well as all of the changes on defense both in personnel and the passing of Jim Johnson throw up a caution flag as well. The Redskins could have one of those Ravens-esque seasons where they run well and play good defense and Jason Campbell is only asked to make a few key plays all season. And then there’s the Cowboys. Again, a very questionable receiving corps casts some questions as does their weak secondary. But the Running Backs, Quarterback, Tight End and the Pass Rush should keep them in most games.

1. New York Giants (11-5)
2. Philadelphia (10-6)
3. Washington (9-7)
4. Dallas (9-7)

NFC North
The second best division in the NFC is clearly the NFC North. Chicago will be much improved with Cutler running the offense and the defense should be stout as always. The Vikings have to be better with Favre under center than with Tavaris Jackson. While Favre was at the top of the list of interceptions last year, he was also the 3rd most accurate passer in the NFL. So if he will lay off forcing a few balls then he could dramatically improve that stat. And with those running backs and a very good front four on defense, I expect the Vikings to control many games. And you can’t leave out Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers will likely jump into the discussion of the elite QB’s in the NFL this year, and their schedule seems very favorable to a strong run by the Cheeseheads. And Detroit… well I expect them to win a lot more than last year.

1. Green Bay Packers (13-3)
2. Minnesota Vikings (11-5)
3. Chicago Bears (10-6)
4. Detroit Lions (3-13)

NFC South
It’s hard to predict how this division goes. The one thing I feel sure of is that Tampa Bay will not be very good. The Falcons should be able to improve on last year as guys mature and with the addition of Tony Gonzalez, but history says that they never make the playoffs in back to back years and their schedule is tougher this year and they have to face 5 teams that will have 2 weeks to prep for them. That will likely hurt. The Saints offense should be stellar, so the big question there is if their defense can just be improved enough to keep them in it. And Carolina is a hard one to peg. They were 12-4 last year, but with the dud of a playoff performance from Delhomme and some of the guys aging it has thrown a big question mark. That being said, Deangelo Williams should be poised for another good season.

1. New Orleans Saints (10-6)
2. Carolina Panthers(9-7)
3. Atlanta Falcons(8-8)
4. Tampa Bay Bucs(4-12)

NFC West
Let’s just say that the NFL will not be going out of their way to showcase the two Western divisions. While the defending NFC Champs do live in this division, I have no love for the Cardinals. Warner is getting old and seems unlikely to avoid injury this year coming off taking the 3rd most hits of any QB in the league. I don’t think the hair dye will stem the tide. Seattle should be much improved if Hasselback can stay healthy. The signing of Houshmanzadeh could be a huge coup. The Niners and the Rams should both show periodic signs of life, but overall neither one should be a big threat to win the division.

1. Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
2. Arizona Cardinals (8-8)
3. San Francisco 49ers(7-9)
4. St. Louis Rams (5-11)

Playoffs:
AFC: Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, San Diego
NFC: Giants, Eagles, Packers, Vikings, Saints, Seahawks

AFC Title Game: Patriots over Ravens
NFC Title Game: Packers over Giants

Super Bowl: Packers over Patriots

(Disclaimer… I made this up in 3 minutes… I would not be betting the mortgage on this…)

What Makes a Successful Organization – Trade Edition

I sat back to ponder what the difference between consistantly successful organizations and organizations that tend to flounder. So I took the last decade of trades and drafts for the Braves & Royals to see what seemed to be the difference. I rated trades from a -3 to a 3 as far as value and impact for each team. It was interesting because I expected the difference to be in the number of successful trades and the number where it was a dramatic advantage for one team, but in truth the difference was the number of trades that the teams LOST. And those numbers I found staggering.

I will give the stats and some examples and then at the bottom I will include all of the trades so that you can evaluate them yourself if you want.

Royals Trades rated 0 (even): 31
Braves Trades rated 0 (even): 29

The interesting difference here is that the majority of the Royals’ 0 trades were of no benefit to either team. The Braves had a higher number that benefitted both teams.

Royals Trades rated 1: 20  (ex: Octavio Dotel for Kyle Davies)
Braves Trades rated 1: 22  (ex: Max Ramirez for Bob Wickman)

I was impressed with this number as the Royals really have had their fair share of good trades through the years.

Royals Trades rated 2: 4  (ex: Juan Lebron for Joe Randa; Benito Santiago for Leo Nunez)
Braves Trades rated 2: 5  (ex: Horacio Ramirez for Rafael Soriano)

Interestingly the Braves were more prone to have multi-player trades be rated a 2 rather than 1 for 1. The Braves have been very adept at packaging groups of prospects that don’t end up working out.

Royals Trades rated 3: 1
Braves Trades rated 3: 0

This is a little bit of artistic license on my part, but trading $50,000 for Joakim Soria was a steal. Granted the Twins taking Johan Santana for the same price would have created a category 5.

Now we look at where things have fallen apart for the Royals. The trades that went wrong were staggering. The Braves only have 8 that fall into any negative categories. And the reality is that even in these the Braves got useful players. In negative trades the Braves still acquired: Casey Kotchman, Mark Kotsay, Octavio Dotel, Mark Teixeira, Ron Mahay, JD Drew, Eli Marrero, & Johnny Estrada. That’s amazing. The Royals however, often got nothing useful in return.

Royals Trades rated -1: 15 (ex: Matt Diaz for Ricardo Rodriguez; Jeff Keppinger for Russ Haltiwanger; )
Braves Trades rated -1:  8  (ex: Kevin Millwood for Johnny Estrada)

Now we get to the big swing. The Braves have no trades that I could rate at -2 or -3. So no one ever destroys the Braves in a trade, whereas the Royals have made 4 such trades:

Royals Trades rated -2: 2  (ex: J.P. Howell for Joey Gathright & Fernando Cortez)
Royals Trades rated -3: 2  (ex: Jermaine Dye for Neifi Perez)

Considering the Royals’ need of good arms in the bullpen and Howell’s emergence as the best arm in the Rays’ pen combined with the release of Gathright this spring has taken that trade to the -2 level. And the Dye & Damon trades are too egregious to even talk about without nausea seeping in…

And very quickly, check out the talent evaluation differences in their recent drafts, expecially considering that the Royals always had better draft position each year:

Braves:
Adam Wainwright
Kelly Johnson
Zach Miner
Adam Laroche
Tony Gwynn
Kyle Davies
Jeff Francour
Brian McCann
Chuck James
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Jo-Jo Reyes
Joey Devine
Yunel Escobar

Royals:
Mike MacDougle
Mark Ellis
David Dejesus
Zack Greinke
Jonah Bayliss
Mike Aviles
Billy Butler
J.P. Howell
Alex Gordon
Luke Hochevar

So it’s as non-scientific as they come, but it simply seems that talent evaluation and not making huge mistakes in trades are the x-factors to building a classy organization.

1999	Rating
Juan Lebron for Joe Randa	2
Shane Halter for Jonathan Guzman	-1
Scott Chiasson for Jay Witasik	1
Jeff Conine for Chris Fussell	-1
Jose Cepeda for Mark Pisciotta	0
Kevin Appier for Jeff D’amico, Blake Stein, & Brad Rigby	-1
Jeremy Jackson for Derek Wallace	0
Glendon Rusch for Dan Murray	-2
Ken Ray for Jerry Spradlin	0
Sean McNally for Todd Dunwoody	0
Jeremy Giambi for Brett Laxton	-1
2000
Brad Rigby for Miguel Batista	1
Jay Witasick for Brian Meadows	-1
Nick Ortiz for Wilson Delgado	0
Johnny Damon & Mark Ellis for Angel Berroa, AJ Hinch, & Roberto Hernandez	-3
Michael Curry for Endy Chavez	1
2001
Jose Santiago for Paul Byrd	2
Cary Ammons for Donnie Sadler	0
Sal Fasano & Mac Suzuki for Brent Mayne	1
Jermaine Dye for Neifi Perez	-3
Rey Sanchez for Alejandro Machado & Brad Voyles	-1
Shawn Sonnier for Michael Tucker	1
2002
Bryan Rekar for Eduardo Villacis	0
Jeff Austin & Brian Shackleford for Alan Moye & Damaso Espino	0
Odannys Ayala for Fernando Lunar	0
2003
Victor Rodriguez & Scott Mullen for Travis Dawkins	0
Alejandro Machado & Wes Obermueller for Curtis Leskanic	1
Jeremy Hill for Graeme Lloyd	0
Aric Leclair for Paul Abbott	1
Kieran Mattison & Trey Dyson for Brian Anderson & Chris White	1
Chris Tierney & Brian Sanches for Rondell White	-1
Jason Suzminski for Rich Thompson	0
Shawn Sedlacek for Jaime Cerda	0
2004
Chris Fallon & Zach McClellan for Justin Huisman	0
Chris Dawkins for Damian Jackson	0
Jason Grimsley for Denny Bautista	1
Carlos Beltran for Mark Teahen, John Buck, & Mike Wood	-1
Rick Short for Scott Randall	0
Jose Bautista for Justin Huber	0
Rudy Seanez for Abraham Nunez	-1
Mike Venafro for Elvin Nina	0
Ryan Bukvich & Darrell May for Terrance Long & Dennis Tankersley	0
Benito Santiago for Leo Nunez	2
Jorge Vasquez for Eli Marrero	1
2005
Eli Marrero for Pete Maestrales	-1
Tony Graffanino for Juan Cedeno and Chip Ambres	0
Chad Blackwell & Jonah Bayliss for Mark Redman	0
Fabio Castro for Esteban German	1
Matt Diaz for Ricardo Rodriguez	-1
Chris Demaria for Justin Barnes	0
Wilson Valdes for Jarod Plummer	0
2006
J.P. Howell for Joey Gathright & Fernando Cortez	-2
Ruben Gotay for Jeff Keppinger	1
Mike MacDougal for Daniel Cortes & Tyler Lumsden	0
Tony Graffanino for Jorge De La Rosa	1
Elmer Dessens for Odalis Perez, Blake Johnson, & Julio Pimentel	0
Matt Stairs for Jose Diaz	-1
Jeremy Affeldt & Denny Bautista for Ryan Shealy & Scott Dohmann	-1
Ambiorix Burgos for Brian Bannister	2
Andrew Sisco for Ross Gload	1
Jeff Keppinger for Russ Haltiwanger	-1
Erik Cordier for Tony Pena Jr.	1
Max St. Pierre for Ben Hendrickson	0
$50,000 for Joakim Soria - (Rule 5 Draft)	3
2007
Danny Christensen for Roman Colon	1
Octavio Dotel for Kyle Davies	1
Billy Buckner for Alberto Callaspo	1
Henry Arias for Brad Salmon	0
Jorge de la Rosa for Ramon Ramirez	1
2008
Justin Huber for PTBNL	0
Angel Berroa for Juan Rivera	1
Horacio Ramirez for Paulo Orlando	0
2009
Leo Nunez for Mike Jacobs	0
Ramon Ramirez for Coco Crisp	-1
Ross Gload for PTBNL	0
	31	0
	20	1
	4	2
	1	3
	15	-1
	2	-2
	2	-3

1999	Rating
Rob Bell, Denny Neagle and Michael Tucker for Bret Boone and Mike Remlinger	2
Matthew Targac for Justin Speier	1
Mark Wohlers for John Hudek	0
Marc Pisciotta for Jose Cepada	0
Joey Nation, Micah Bowie and Ruben Quevedo for Jose Hernandez and Terry Mulholland	2
Greg Dukeman for Freddy Garcia	0
Bret Boone, Ryan Klesko and Jason Shiell for Wally Joyner, Reggie Sanders and Quilvio Veras	0
Freddy Garcia for Dennis Russo	0
2000
Bruce Chen and Jimmy Osting for Andy Ashby	1
Trenidad Hubbard, Fernando Lunar and Luis Rivera for Gabe Molina and B.J. Surhoff	1
Steve Sisco for Jesse Garcia	0
2001
Troy Cameron and John Rocker for Steve Karsay and Steve Reed	2
Alejandro Machado and Brad Voyles for Rey Sanchez	1
Winston Abreu for Rudy Seanez	1
Andrew Brown, Brian Jordan and Odalis Perez for Gary Sheffield	1
Elvis Perez for Kevin Gryboski	0
Paul Bako and Jose Cabrera for Henry Blanco	1
Eddie Perez for Jason Fitzgerald	0
2002
George Lombard for Kris Keller	0
Ryan Baker and Tim Spooneybarger for Mike Hampton	1
John Foster and Wes Helms for Ray King	0
Damian Moss and Merkin Valdez for Russ Ortiz	1
Kevin Millwood for Johnny Estrada	-1
Chris Spurling for Matt Coenen	0
2003
Matt Belisle for Kent Mercker	1
Ray King, Jason Marquis and Adam Wainwright for J.D. Drew and Eli Marrero	-1
Richard Lewis and Andy Pratt for Juan Cruz and Steve Smyth	1
Bubba Nelson and Jung Bong for Chris Reitsma	1
2004
Matt Merricks for Tom Martin	0
Alec Zumwalt and Jose Capellan for Danny Kolb	0
Eli Marrero for Jorge Vasquez	-1
Juan Cruz, Dan Meyer and Charles Thomas for Tim Hudson	2
Nick Green for Jorge Sosa	0
2005
Kevin Gryboski for Matt Lorenzo	0
Roman Colon and Zach Miner for Kyle Farnsworth	-1
Angelo Burrows and Todd Blackford for Todd Hollandsworth	1
Danny Kolb for Wes Obermueller.	0
Johnny Estrada for Lance Cormier and Oscar Villarreal	0
Andy Marte for Edgar Renteria	1
Ricardo Rodriguez for Matt Diaz	1
2006
Brad Baker for Franklin Nunez	0
Max Ramirez for Bob Wickman	1
Wilson Betemit for Willy Aybar and Danys Baez	1
Jorge Sosa for Rich Scalamandre	0
Luis Atilano for Daryle Ward	0
Horacio Ramirez for Rafael Soriano	2
Jamie Romak and Adam LaRoche for Mike Gonzalez and Brent Lillibridge	0
Tony Pena for Erik Cordier	0
2007
Macay McBride for Wilfredo Ledezma	0
Beau Jones, Elvis Andrus, Matt Harrison, Neftali Feliz and Jarrod Saltalamacchia for Ron Mahay and Mark Teixeira	-1
Kyle Davies for Octavio Dotel	-1
Will Startup and Wilfredo Ledezma for Royce Ring	0
Edgar Renteria for Gorkys Hernandez and Jair Jurrjens	1
Oscar Villarreal for Josh Anderson	0
Jose Ascanio for Omar Infante and Will Ohman	1
Jamie Richmond, Joey Devine for Mark Kotsay	-1
Tyler Yates for Todd Redmond	0
2008
Chase Fontaine and Willy Aybar for Jeff Ridgway	1
Nelson Payano for Greg Norton	1
Sal Fasano for PTBNL	0
Mark Teixeira for Stephen Marek and Casey Kotchman	-1
Mark Kotsay for Luis Sumoza	0
2009
Jon Gilmore, Santos Rodriguez, Tyler Flowers and Brent Lillibridge for Boone Logan and Javier Vazquez	1
Josh Anderson for Rudy Darrow	0
	29	0
	22	1
	5	2
	0	3
	8	-1
	0	-2

NBA Draft Ineptitude – Atlanta vs. Minnesota

A friend from work challenged me when I had stated that the Atlanta Hawks’ first round drafting ineptitude from 2000-2006 was unrivaled in the NBA. He said that Minnesota had a greater legacy of foul play, and naturally I took that as a challenge to prove myself right…and it seemed like fun, I have to be honest. We will go year by year counting down from 2006 to 2000: 

2006:
Atlanta Hawks First Round Pick: Sheldon Williams (better known as Mr. Candace Parker)
A Sane Person’s Pick: Brandon Roy (I mean seriously, WHAT WERE YOU THINKING!!) 

Minnesota T-Wolves First Round Pick: Randy Foye (via trade… traded Brandon Roy)
A Sane Person’s Pick: Brandon Roy (You picked him and gave him away!!!) 

Ineptitude Edge: Hawks. They picked someone no sane team would have picked and had they picked correctly it would have saved Minnesota from trading him for a serviceable point guard. 

2005:
Atlanta Hawks First Round Pick: Marvin Williams
A Sane Person’s Pick: Chris Paul or Deron Williams (this one sends me into the fetal position)

Minnesota Timberwolves First Round Pick: Rashad McCants
A Sane Person’s Pick: Rashad McCants

Ineptitude Edge: Hawks. There are no words to describe how bad this was. Paul is a top 5 player in the NBA. Williams fights to be top 5 on the Hawks. 

 2004: 
Atlanta Hawks first First Round Pick: Josh Childress
A Sane Person’s Pick: Luol Deng, Andre Iguodala, or Al Jefferson (after missing out on a solid ACC player this year, it lead to two straight years of overcompensating with wrong ACC players picked)
Atlanta Hawks second First Round Pick: Josh Smith
A Sane Person’s Pick: This was fairly sane so we won’t complain.

Minnesota T-Wolves Traded their First Round Pick.  

Ineptitude Edge: Hawks. Childress was terrible. 

2003
Atlanta Hawks First Round Pick: Boris Diaw
A Sane Person’s Pick: Diaw or Josh Howard

Minnesota T-Wolves First Round Pick: Ndudi Ebi
A Sane Person’s Pick: Josh Howard

Ineptitude Edge: Timberwolves. I don’t even know who Ndudi Ebi is!!!

2002 – 2000

• Atlanta Hawks traded a future 1st Round Pick for Dan Dickau
• Atlanta Hawks traded Pau Gasol for Shareef-Abdur Rahim
• Atlanta Hawks selected DeMarr Johnson instead of anyone out of: Chris Mihm, Jamal Crawford, Desmond Mason, Quentin Richardson, Jamaal Magloire, & Hedo Turkgolu

The Minnesota Timberwolves forfeited 5 draft picks for the improper signing of Joe Smith.

Ineptitude Edge: Atlanta Hawks - They traded Pau Gasol and a #1 pick for Shareef and Dan Dickau!!!
Stupidity Edge: Minnesota Timberwolves – How do you sign someone improperly? And how do you get caught??

So the clear answer is that there was no contest… the Hawks. Thankfully, the new administration seems to have backed off their addiction to the Crazy Pills and we have hope going forward, but you all should have pity on Hawks fans that lived through what is described above!

HOFers Among Us (H.A.U.)

 

One of the things that I like to do is try to get to the ballpark whenever teams with great players are in town so that some day down the road when my kids ask about them, I can say “yeah, I saw them play in person”. So as I was thinking about that, I thought to myself “wouldn’t an Oreo taste good” and then I thought “who are all of the sure fire, if they retired TODAY would be in the Hall of Fame guys”? So I plan to do a series of posts coming up with my current list. I’ll try to do a pair of players at a time. So we will be starting out in the Pacific Northwest with 2/3 of the Seattle Mariners Outfield. 

1. Ken Griffey Jr – #24

Now I realize that I’m unlikely to find anyone disagree with me, but I’m going to make the case anyway. Let’s take a look at some of the numbers that Jr. has put up in his career:

• Home Runs – 613: It goes without saying that this puts him on the doorstep by itself. #5 all time in homers, and the reality is that in my mind, he’s #4 all-time (I have to boot Barry out of there…). Keep in mind that he had back to back seasons of 56 home runs in the mid-nineties which are two of the top 17 seasons in baseball history and 8 of the ones in front of him were by Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, & A-Rod…so infer my point as you wish. 

• Gold Gloves – 10: Arguably the most memorable facet of Jr’s game in the 90’s was his defensive flair for the dramatic from robbing home runs to making diving catches or crashing into the wall with utter disregard for his own well being. 

• Other awards: 1 AL MVP; 1 All-Star Game MVP; 7 Silver Sluggers; 4-time HR Champ; 2-time HR Derby Champ

• Postseason Performance: Yeah, A-Rod, you probably want to look away. For the sake of argument, his ‘08 post-season stats are being ignored (though even with his 2-10 in limited playing time he’s a .290 career post-season hitter). Junior hit over.300 with 6 HR, 11 RBI, 5 SB in 59 official at-bats. 

I could go on and on, as those who know me and my man-love for Junior can attest, but the reality is that no one will dispute Griffey’s place in Cooperstown. As a personal note, I’ve seen Junior play in Cleveland, Cincinnati, Houston, & Kansas City (and he has homered in 3 of those 4 cities’ games I’ve attended). If any of you want to make my dream come true, feel free to send me to Seattle to see him play this year!

2. – Ichiro – #51

I am only arguing Ichiro’s stats from MLB, but I will point out that if you combine his stats from Japan with America he already has over 3,000 hits and isn’t close to being done yet. Ok, let’s get down to the stats for Ichiro. 

• Hits: Never fewer than 206 hits in a single season. Has the single season MLB record for hits with 262. 
• Runs: Over 100 runs scored in every season in MLB. 
• Average: Never below a .303 average in a season. 3 seasons of .350 or higher. Career .330 average. 
• Stolen Bases: Never below 31 SB in a single season. Had 56 in his first season. 
• Extra Base Hits: Averages almost exactly 25 2B’s per year, 8 3B’s per year, and 9 HR’s per year (including 3 career grand slams)
• Defense: Gold glove winner every season in MLB as well as gaining the reputation early in his career for having an outstanding arm in RF. 
• Postseason: Career .421 hitter in the postseason.  
• Awards: Rookie of the Year, 1 MVP, 2-time Batting Champion
• All Star: All-Star every year in the majors and 1 All-Star Game MVP.

He truly is a legend among us who has quietly proven that it doesn’t matter the competition, he will excel. And yes, I have seen him live, and seen him hit a HR live. He is the most consistent leadoff hitter of this generation. 

 

Next Up: John Smoltz…

Baseball Preview Edition

Everyone and their brother do baseball previews and considering it’s my favorite sport, I am going to unapologetically do likewise. However, I’ll be going a little bit further than most pundits (Sports Illustrated not withstanding) and I’ll be putting out my final standings for each division as well. Why? Because sometimes it’s just as hard to predict 4^th place as it is to pick 1^st, and why be wrong only 6 times when you can actually do it 32 times!! Now, without further ado:

 

American League East

The darlings of the baseball media. And yes, it’s hard to argue when teams from this division constantly show up in the World Series. So was last year the changing of the guard, or will we be back to the old standbys? Well… a little bit of both. As many have said this will be a three-way battle probably resulting in three teams with 90+ wins and one of them missing the playoffs. At this point I’ve got to go with youth and pitching, thus the Yankees will come up short yet again, and Joe Girardi will actually find himself jobless after the season. But pitching is more important than youth and the power of the bullpen cannot be underestimated, so I’m going to have to go with Boston winning the division and Tampa Bay winning the Wild Card for the American League. Oh, and watch the Orioles as they could start moving toward becoming a threat in the coming years. I look for Nick Markakis to continue his rise to prominence and Adam Jones and Matt Wieters to have breakout seasons as well.

 

1. Boston Red Sox (96-66)
2. Tampa Bay Rays – wc (94-68)
3. New York Yankees (92-70)
4. Baltimore Orioles (77-85)
5. Toronto Blue Jays (68-94)

 

American League Central

This is truly the one division where there are good arguments for all 5 teams being able to win the division, and probably good arguments for 3 or 4 of them being in last place. I generally find it impossible to count out the Twins and with their young pitching I was leaning that way again, but already having injuries to Scott Baker and prized catcher Joe Mauer, I believe that they may not have enough magic to make it happen this go-around. The Tigers are a team that seems poised to be in the hunt in September or be out of it by June. Based on pitching and injuries…I’m betting on June. Though Miguel Cabrera should be toward the top of the league in all 3 triple crown categories. The Royals seem to be a lot of people’s “Cinderella” pick this year, thus jinxing them and making all Kansas City residents groan. That being said, I believe that the Royals will contend for a good while and hit the .500 mark this season fueled by big years from Zack Greinke & Alex Gordon. As for the rest… well, I just think that Cleveland is going to pull this thing off.

 

1. Cleveland Indians (93-69)
2. Minnesota Twins (88-74)
3. Kansas City Royals (82-80)
4. Chicago White Sox (74-88)
5. Detroit Tigers (62-100)

 

American League West

Here is where you will realize that I am clearly not attempting to make the math work out on the total number of games won and lost in baseball. The AL West is a mess. Most pundits say that it’s Anaheim (I will never call them LA) that will pull it off, but a growing number are beginning to argue that Oakland will be back in contention. Which clearly leads me to believe that it’s either going to be Texas or Seattle. And yes, I believe this is a massive toss-up and that none of these teams will outclass the rest of the American league. But it could be a fun division none-the-less. Oh, and I’m completely abandoning my youth and pitching defense from the East. For Texas I will be arguing that pounding the snot out of the ball in a weak division is crucial. And for Seattle I’ll be arguing that pitching and clubhouse chemistry is more important. That’s right… I don’t hold to anything when it comes to producing winners. Because I think you could argue that each of them have been right at least one time this decade, so why put everything in a box. So anyway, I think that Texas is going to destroy the ball night in and night out and I think that Seattle is going to bounce back in a way that can’t be explained. Oh, and Anaheim is getting old and keeps downgrading defensively. And I don’t like Oakland.

 

1. Texas Rangers (84-78)
2. Seattle Mariners (82-80)
3. Anaheim Angels of Anaheim (81-81)
4. Oakland Athletics (79-83)

National League East

The division I grew up on. I have strong biases here. I hate the Mets. I have a soft spot for Ryan Howard and Jamie Moyer. I love the Braves. I find the Marlins to be the most exciting team in baseball. And the Washington Expos are irrelevant. So here is where the wacko-meter is going to go to 50 (Not to 50!!! Sorry…Princess Bride reference…). Everyone and their brother are picking the Mets and the Phillies in one combination or the other. And keep in mind that I hate the Mets and have a soft-spot for the Phillies. So naturally I have the Mets, led by Santana & the pen, winning the division and the Phillies dropping precipitously in the standings (I am counting on some injury factors in this as well). But don’t sleep on the Braves and Marlins either.

 

1. New York Mets (95-67)
2. tie – Florida Marlins (90-72)
3. tie – Atlanta Braves (90-72)
4. Philadelphia Phillies (83-81)
5. Washington Nationals (60-102)

 

National League Central

The more I look at this season the more I think either I’m crazy or people are just far too comfortable picking based off history instead of off this season. The Cubs have been living a charmed existence and they are now, since the Phillies, White Sox, & Red Sox have all shaken off their past shackles, everyone’s darling that they dream of having win the series next. However, as much as I like Sweet Lou I think that the loveable losers are going to take a step back into their more historical roll this season. In addition, I think that we will get to find out that Cincinnati is the NL youthful team on the rise and also that no one should sleep on the Brewers. And finally… the boldest prediction of them all. I don’t think the Pirates finish in last!!! We believe!!

 

1. St. Louis Cardinals (94-68)
2. Cincinnati Reds (84-78)
3. Chicago Cubs (83-79)
4. Milwaukee Brewers (81-81)
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (75-87)
6. Houston Astros (72-90)

 

 

National League West

Ok, so now that we are past the crazy-talk, I think we get to the easiest division to call in baseball.  I can’t pick against the Dodgers. They have good, young starting pitching. They have some solid guys at the back of the bullpen. They have youth, athleticism, and Manny in their lineup. Wow, do they look good. Then you get to Arizona and Colorado who are still good young teams. But don’t sleep on the Giants either as their starting pitching, Barry Zito CLEARLY excluded, could have them in the hunt. Oh, and the Padres will be very…very…very bad. At least the weather is gorgeous there. Did I mention that the Dodgers look REALLY good?!

 

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (101-61)
2. Arizona Diamondbacks – wc (92-70)
3. Colorado Rockies (89-73)
4. San Francisco Giants (80-82)
5. San Diego Padres (62-100)

 

Playoff Preview:

 

National League:

Based on this model our playoff matchups in the Division Series’ will be:

Los Angeles v. St. Louis – Winner: Los Angeles

New York v. Arizona – Winner: New York

 

LCS: Los Angeles v. New York – Winner: Los Angeles

 

American League:

Division Series matchups determined above

Boston v. Texas – Winner: Boston

Cleveland v. Tampa Bay – Winner: Tampa Bay

 

LCS: Boston v. Tampa Bay – Winner: Boston

 

World Series: Los Angeles vs. Boston – Winner and World Series Champions: The Los Angeles Dodgers

All-Time Pitching Rotation

This is much more difficult than the hitting/fielding teams. Why? Well, I’m pretty sure you could put together 4 complete pitching staffs of 10 pitchers and you’d be hard pressed to be able to argue one more definitively over the next. So what I’m going to do is build a rotation that could be one of these “best” groups, by having a variety of types and guys that I would absolutely want to go into a series with. So what would this rotation look like? Well for one, I’m not using middle relief. There will be 9 starters an 1 closer. In addition, post-season prowess, intimidation and downright bias will all factor into some of these decisions. So here we go:

1. Walter Johnson – I could wow you with his 36 win, 240+ K, & 1.14 ERA season, but the one that I love the most is the season that he won 20 games and batted .400. At that rate, I might just use my DH to hit for Johnny Bench instead of the pitcher. 

2. Satchel Paige – The greatest Negro Leagues pitcher ever. Oh, and he was able to pitch in the major leagues up until he was nearly 60 year old. That is utterly ridiculous. And was he up for clutch situations? The story goes that one day he intentionally walked two batters in the ninth inning to load the bases just so he could face Josh Gibson (a.k.a. the greatest Negro Leagues home run hitter). And he struck Gibson out on three straight fastballs. 

3. Greg Maddux – Every rotation needs the most cerebral pitcher of all time, as well as the winningest pitcher in major league history. Mad Dog never took a game off and put up a sub 1.60 ERA one season… DURING THE STEROID ERA!

4. Tom Seaver – 2 World Series appearances, 3 Cy Young Awards, Rookie of the Year…and the token New Yorker on my team. 

5. Bob Gibson – The King of Intimidation. He’d drill you with a pitch if he thought you wore footed pajamas as a child. Oh, and he was so dominant that they lowered the pitching mound to try to help out all of the hitters! (Of course, I want to know how you lose 9 games in a season where you pitched 28 complete games and had a 1.12 ERA!?!)

6. Sandy Koufax – Over a 4 year span he averaged over 27 wins, won 3 strikeout titles, 3 shutout titles, and had a sub 2.00 ERA. 

7. Randy Johnson – He’s scared a man who beat cancer senseless, killed a bird in flight, and been voted the ugliest player in major league baseball. Oh, and he’s struck out over 3,000. And in two particular post-seasons he had one with 3 wins in 7 games, and another with 2 wins in 3 games pitching the clutch extra innings on 1 day of rest. 

8. Cy Young – I’m simply going to go on name recognition here. 

9. John Smoltz – Absolutely the most dominant post-season pitcher. Ever. I want him on the mound every game seven. And the 200+ wins and 150+ saves is fairly amazing. 

10. Mariano Rivera – In his prime, Rivera was positively untouchable. I don’t even feel like I need to make a defense here. 

So there you have it. I’ll take this crew against anything you can come up with.

Anatomy of a Quantum Leap

On Selection Sunday 2009, I sit pondering the future of my beloved Yellow Jackets. 13-19. Often, this would appear to be the depressing harbinger of things to come, but upon further review there appears to be a silver lining. And while it may appear that it’s just a fan drinking the hometown Kool-Aid, there are a few things to really note underneath the numbers.

When pondering a 13-19 record, it is key to look at those losses to see what they say:

• 2 losses were in overtime.
• 2 losses were by 1 point.
• 2 losses were by 2 points.
• 2 losses were by 4 points.
• 1 loss was by 5 points.

 That means that 9 losses were EASILY within the “winnable” category. It indicates that this team knew how to compete, just not how to finish opponents off. In addition to those losses, there were 3 losses against the RPI Top 10 and another 2 losses were against RPI Top 26 opponents. That leaves us with 14 of 19 losses that don’t look terrible. So were there any wins of significance? Yes. 2 wins were against Top 25 teams and Top 26 RPI teams. 

So, one could argue that hope should spring eternal based on how close they were and that one more year of experience could take them over the hump. However, the team’s highest scorer is a senior. So where do I get my hope? 

The Rivals.com #4 recruiting class in the country. 4 players in the Rivals 100 Top 80 and the 5th is 124th. And there is an incoming freshman at all 5 positions. Oh, and let’s not forget that Paul Hewitt is not an inexperienced coach. He lost the best player to play at Tech in decades (Chris Bosh) and the next year’s team made the National Championship game. Coach Hewitt knows what it takes to get the job done. This is how a team can go from last in the ACC to an NCAA tournament bid in one year. Confident? Yes I am. And just remember that you heard it here first.

My All-Time Team – Hitting/Fielding

We love lists. We e-mail lists. We make personal lists. Our love of lists gave David Letterman a money-maker of a segment every night. So in order to try to capitalize on the popularity of lists, I’m putting together my All-Time Greats Baseball Team. Now, I get the fun of taking my liberties, so my team will consist of one player per position, a Designated Hitter, and one bench infielder and one bench outfielder. 

C – Johnny Bench: The defensive side of the game is where Yogi fell short of Johnny. 

1B – Lou Gehrig: His numbers outshine the rest and as much as Babe Ruth revolutionized the game, Lou Gehrig solidified the new direction of baseball. Oh, and as a bonus…he did strike out 17 batters in one game as a pitcher.

2B – Rogers Hornsby: His defense is short of Joe Morgan’s, but I unfairly judge Joe Morgan on how displeasing he is as a baseball commentator, and just can’t put him on my team. 

3B – Eddie Matthews: George Brett was a close second. 

SS – Honus Wagner: I can’t find any justification for anyone but Wagner. 

LF – Ted Williams: I cannot fathom how amazing his numbers would have been if he hadn’t served our country in World War II

CF – Ty Cobb: No one said that I was picking all choir boys. 

RF – Hank Aaron: The use of the DH gives me the luxury of not having the Babe’s defense in the field. 

DH – Babe Ruth: He was the greatest of all time. He revolutionized the game. He outhomered teams when no one could. He did it all while doing plenty of Performance Detracting Drugs (food, alcohol, etc.)

IF – Jimmie Foxx: There were years that he outperformed Gehrig head to head.

OF – Willie Mays: The power, the speed, the defense… you didn’t really think that I could leave him off did you?

 

The beauty of this team is that not only would it destroy any other team that you could put together, but it also would be a team that exemplifies some of the greatest aspects of baseball. Now stay tuned for my All-Time pitching team coming later this week…

Oh…and just for grins here would be my batting order:

1. Ty Cobb
2. Honus Wagner
3. Babe Ruth
4. Hank Aaron
5. Lou Gehrig
6. Ted Williams
7. Eddie Matthews
8. Rogers Hornsby
9. Johnny Bench